Sandy in znanost

But I feel that there’s an important story that the press is almost ignoring.  There’s another group of people, little-mentioned in the media, who probably saved more lives and property than anyone else.  I refer to the experts at the National Hurricane Center (NHC), and more generally the various branches of the National Weather Service (NWS) and its parent, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). 

…Actually it appears to be several stunning accomplishments in one: the forecast of the unusual track; the forecast of the unusual increase in strength and size; the forecast of a powerful blizzard in the mountains of West Virginia and other nearby states; and the forecast of the extremely high storm surge along Long Island, northern New Jersey and New York Harbor that would prove to be some of the most damaging elements of the storm.  These forecasts were all of highly complex and interrelated phenomena, and very challenging even for the most advanced scientific methods.  

And what amazes me is that the forecasters did this successfully despite never having observed a storm of this type before. 

This, of course, is how science is supposed to work, when it is at its best. 

Morda so vremenarji pravzaprav žrtve svoje uspešnosti, saj smo se kar navadili, da so napovedi vremena točne. Sam sem se recimo brez prevelikih travm odločil, da minulo nedeljo za let v cern obdržim originalno pot s prestopom v Washingtonu, kljub temu da je bil Washington znotraj vpliva nevihte Sandy. Pred tem sem seveda podrobno pregledal vremenske napovedi (in jim tudi zaupal :-)).

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